2026 Week 1 · Sep 6, 2026, 2:30 AM · Mackay Stadium
Western Kentucky @ Nevada
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Kentucky
26.3
Nevada
25.2
Nevada win probability: 47%
Margin (Nevada − Western Kentucky): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 28 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:11 PM | -1.3 | 51.6 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:21 PM | -1.1 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:15 PM | -1.1 | 51.5 | 47% |