2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mackay Stadium
San José State @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLean
San José State
22.5
Nevada
26.7
Nevada win probability: 61%
Margin (Nevada − San José State): 4.2 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.92% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:49 PM | 1.2 | 49.7 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:56 PM | 1.2 | 49.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:57 PM | 1.2 | 49.8 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:11 AM | 1.2 | 49.8 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:05 PM | 1.2 | 49.8 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:51 PM | -0.3 | 49.9 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:06 PM | 2.8 | 49.5 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:29 PM | 2.8 | 50.0 | 57% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:26 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:30 AM | 3.1 | 50.0 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:03 PM | 3.1 | 50.0 | 58% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:06 PM | 5.7 | 48.2 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:56 PM | 2.7 | 49.5 | 57% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:24 PM | 4.9 | 48.8 | 62% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:07 PM | 4.2 | 49.2 | 61% |