2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mackay Stadium
San José State @ Nevada
Predicted scoreToss-up
San José State
24.3
Nevada
25.5
Nevada win probability: 53%
Margin (Nevada − San José State): 1.2 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:49 PM | 1.2 | 49.7 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:56 PM | 1.2 | 49.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:57 PM | 1.2 | 49.8 | 53% |