2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 2:00 AM · Mackay Stadium
New Mexico @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLean
New Mexico
30.4
Nevada
22.7
Nevada win probability: 32%
Margin (Nevada − New Mexico): -7.7 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:18 PM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:13 PM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:49 PM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |