2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 2:00 AM · Mackay Stadium
New Mexico @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
31.6
Nevada
19.2
Nevada win probability: 21%
Margin (Nevada − New Mexico): -12.4 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:18 PM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:13 PM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:49 PM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:03 AM | -7.7 | 53.0 | 32% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:44 PM | -7.8 | 53.0 | 31% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:05 PM | -7.2 | 53.1 | 32% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:04 PM | -6.8 | 54.0 | 33% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:31 PM | -8.2 | 53.5 | 30% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:05 PM | -8.2 | 53.5 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:25 PM | -8.0 | 53.5 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:07 PM | -8.0 | 53.5 | 31% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:55 PM | -12.2 | 52.6 | 22% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:26 PM | -14.9 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:10 PM | -13.0 | 53.0 | 20% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:45 PM | -12.4 | 50.7 | 21% |