Predicted scoreToss-up
Air Force
28.2
Nevada
25.8
Nevada win probability: 44%
Margin (Nevada − Air Force): -2.4 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Air Force 36 – Nevada 33 (margin error 0.6, total error 15.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:52 PM | -4.2 | 52.5 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | -3.9 | 52.4 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:06 PM | -3.8 | 52.4 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:21 AM | -3.9 | 52.5 | 40% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:48 PM | -3.8 | 52.6 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:52 PM | -3.6 | 51.9 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:00 PM | -0.3 | 53.2 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:41 PM | -2.4 | 54.0 | 44% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:24 PM | -2.4 | 54.0 | 44% |