Predicted scoreToss-up
Air Force
28.1
Nevada
24.3
Nevada win probability: 41%
Margin (Nevada − Air Force): -3.8 (80% range -24 to 16)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:52 PM | -4.2 | 52.5 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:00 PM | -3.9 | 52.4 | 40% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:06 PM | -3.8 | 52.4 | 41% |