2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Huskie Stadium
Nevada @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreToss-up
Nevada
23.8
Northern Illinois
26.0
Northern Illinois win probability: 55%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Nevada): 2.3 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:32 PM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:29 PM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:45 PM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |