2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Huskie Stadium
Nevada @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreToss-up
Nevada
26.9
Northern Illinois
23.5
Northern Illinois win probability: 42%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Nevada): -3.4 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:32 PM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:29 PM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:45 PM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:16 AM | 2.3 | 49.8 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:18 PM | 2.2 | 49.7 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:46 PM | 2.1 | 49.1 | 55% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:45 PM | -5.5 | 48.0 | 37% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:09 PM | -5.2 | 48.4 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:44 PM | -5.1 | 48.3 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:16 PM | -4.9 | 48.4 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:28 PM | -4.9 | 48.4 | 37% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:30 PM | -4.3 | 47.6 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:54 PM | -2.6 | 49.6 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:33 PM | -4.0 | 50.0 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:06 PM | -3.4 | 50.4 | 42% |