Nevada
Mountain West
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Penn State | 46–11 | 42.9–12.2 | 4.4 |
| Week 3 | vs Middle Tennessee | 14–13 | 25.2–34.5 | 10.3 |
| Week 4 | @ Western Kentucky | 31–16 | 30.9–22.3 | 6.4 |
| Week 6 | @ Fresno State | 20–17 | 29.5–20.6 | 6.0 |
| Week 7 | vs San Diego State | 44–10 | 26.3–22.4 | 30.1 |
| Week 8 | @ New Mexico | 24–22 | 33.5–21.3 | 10.2 |
| Week 9 | vs Boise State | 24–3 | 32.0–17.3 | 6.3 |
| Week 11 | @ Utah State | 51–14 | 32.1–21.7 | 26.6 |
| Week 12 | vs San José State | 10–55 | 28.6–22.1 | 51.5 |
| Week 13 | @ Wyoming | 7–13 | 25.2–19.4 | 11.7 |
| Week 14 | vs UNLV | 42–17 | 31.5–23.4 | 16.9 |