2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:00 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Nevada @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLikely

Nevada

22.3

Western Kentucky

30.9

Western Kentucky win probability: 70%

Margin (Western Kentucky − Nevada): 8.6 (80% range -11 to 29)

Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Nevada 16 – Western Kentucky 31 (margin error 6.4, total error 6.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.