2025 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2025, 1:45 AM · University Stadium (NM)

Nevada @ New Mexico

Predicted scoreLikely

Nevada

21.3

New Mexico

33.5

New Mexico win probability: 77%

Margin (New Mexico − Nevada): 12.2 (80% range -8 to 33)

Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Nevada 22 – New Mexico 24 (margin error 10.2, total error 8.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.