2025 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2025, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

Nevada @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLikely

Nevada

20.6

Fresno State

29.5

Fresno State win probability: 72%

Margin (Fresno State − Nevada): 9.0 (80% range -11 to 28)

Total: 50.1 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Nevada 17 – Fresno State 20 (margin error 6.0, total error 13.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.