2025 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2025, 2:30 AM · Mackay Stadium
San Diego State @ Nevada
Predicted scoreToss-up
San Diego State
26.3
Nevada
22.4
Nevada win probability: 40%
Margin (Nevada − San Diego State): -3.9 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: San Diego State 44 – Nevada 10 (margin error 30.1, total error 5.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.