2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 9:00 PM · Mackay Stadium
Middle Tennessee @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLikely
Middle Tennessee
25.2
Nevada
34.5
Nevada win probability: 72%
Margin (Nevada − Middle Tennessee): 9.3 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 59.7 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Middle Tennessee 14 – Nevada 13 (margin error 10.3, total error 32.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 35 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.