2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 2:00 AM · Mackay Stadium
Boise State @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLikely
Boise State
32.0
Nevada
17.3
Nevada win probability: 17%
Margin (Nevada − Boise State): -14.7 (80% range -35 to 5)
Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Boise State 24 – Nevada 3 (margin error 6.3, total error 22.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.76% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.