2025 Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025, 8:30 PM · Mackay Stadium
San José State @ Nevada
Predicted scoreLean
San José State
28.6
Nevada
22.1
Nevada win probability: 34%
Margin (Nevada − San José State): -6.5 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: San José State 10 – Nevada 55 (margin error 51.5, total error 14.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.