2025 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2025, 12:30 AM · Maverik Stadium
Nevada @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLikely
Nevada
21.7
Utah State
32.1
Utah State win probability: 74%
Margin (Utah State − Nevada): 10.4 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Nevada 14 – Utah State 51 (margin error 26.6, total error 11.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.