Predicted scoreLean
UNLV
31.5
Nevada
23.4
Nevada win probability: 31%
Margin (Nevada − UNLV): -8.1 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: UNLV 42 – Nevada 17 (margin error 16.9, total error 4.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.