2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Nevada @ Middle Tennessee
Predicted scoreToss-up
Nevada
27.5
Middle Tennessee
26.5
Middle Tennessee win probability: 48%
Margin (Middle Tennessee − Nevada): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:36 PM | -1.1 | 54.1 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -1.2 | 54.1 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:19 PM | -1.0 | 54.1 | 48% |