2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Nevada @ Middle Tennessee
Predicted scoreLean
Nevada
30.2
Middle Tennessee
25.5
Middle Tennessee win probability: 39%
Margin (Middle Tennessee − Nevada): -4.7 (80% range -25 to 16)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Nevada 20 – Middle Tennessee 27 (margin error 11.7, total error 8.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:36 PM | -1.1 | 54.1 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -1.2 | 54.1 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:19 PM | -1.0 | 54.1 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:15 AM | -1.4 | 54.1 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:20 PM | -1.2 | 54.1 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:19 PM | -1.6 | 53.7 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:35 PM | -6.3 | 55.6 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:16 PM | -4.7 | 55.6 | 39% |