Predicted scoreConfident
Nevada
15.9
UCLA
33.3
UCLA win probability: 87%
Margin (UCLA − Nevada): 17.4 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.88% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:07 PM | 9.7 | 49.9 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:04 PM | 9.8 | 49.9 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:29 PM | 9.8 | 49.9 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:33 AM | 9.7 | 49.9 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:19 PM | 9.7 | 49.9 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:46 PM | 9.9 | 49.9 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:49 PM | 7.3 | 52.6 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:08 PM | 8.7 | 52.5 | 71% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:41 PM | 8.7 | 52.5 | 71% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:05 PM | 8.9 | 52.5 | 71% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:34 PM | 8.9 | 52.5 | 71% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:34 PM | 16.1 | 51.1 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:03 PM | 18.3 | 53.0 | 88% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:44 PM | 17.5 | 50.2 | 87% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:20 PM | 17.4 | 49.2 | 87% |