Predicted scoreToss-up
Hawai'i
26.4
Nevada
24.7
Nevada win probability: 46%
Margin (Nevada − Hawai'i): -1.7 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:50 PM | -1.7 | 51.1 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:51 PM | -1.7 | 51.0 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:44 PM | -1.7 | 51.0 | 46% |