Predicted scoreLean
Hawai'i
22.8
Nevada
29.0
Nevada win probability: 65%
Margin (Nevada − Hawai'i): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:50 PM | -1.7 | 51.1 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:51 PM | -1.7 | 51.0 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:44 PM | -1.7 | 51.0 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:58 AM | -1.7 | 51.0 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:45 PM | -1.8 | 51.0 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:50 PM | -1.6 | 50.2 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:52 PM | 5.2 | 51.0 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:49 PM | 6.1 | 51.3 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:33 PM | 6.1 | 51.4 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:39 PM | 6.3 | 51.3 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:06 PM | 6.3 | 51.3 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:13 PM | 6.4 | 52.3 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:27 PM | 6.7 | 54.2 | 66% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:25 PM | 6.8 | 54.5 | 66% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:29 PM | 6.3 | 51.8 | 65% |