Predicted scoreLikely
Nevada
21.6
UNLV
30.3
UNLV win probability: 71%
Margin (UNLV − Nevada): 8.7 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:11 PM | 13.5 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:14 PM | 13.5 | 55.2 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:45 PM | 13.5 | 55.2 | 80% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:52:00 AM | 13.5 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:03 PM | 13.4 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:25 PM | 13.2 | 54.9 | 79% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:29 PM | 7.9 | 54.0 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:19 PM | 4.1 | 52.5 | 61% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:56 PM | 4.2 | 52.5 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:20 PM | 4.5 | 52.6 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:35 PM | 4.5 | 52.6 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:57 PM | 6.8 | 51.2 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:58 PM | 8.9 | 52.2 | 72% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:10 PM | 8.6 | 51.7 | 71% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:52 PM | 8.7 | 51.8 | 71% |