Predicted scoreLikely
Nevada
28.3
UTEP
18.1
UTEP win probability: 25%
Margin (UTEP − Nevada): -10.2 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 46.3 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Nevada 30 – UTEP 13 (margin error 6.8, total error 3.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:25 PM | -0.1 | 45.4 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | -0.1 | 45.4 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:11 PM | -1.3 | 46.3 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:31 AM | -1.3 | 46.3 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:25 PM | -1.3 | 45.2 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:26 PM | 0.3 | 45.6 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:23 PM | -8.7 | 47.4 | 29% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:38 PM | -7.7 | 46.0 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:01 PM | -8.0 | 47.1 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:45 AM | -7.9 | 47.1 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:56 PM | -7.9 | 47.1 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:14 PM | -9.6 | 46.2 | 26% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:54 PM | -10.2 | 46.3 | 25% |