Predicted scoreToss-up
Nevada
23.8
UTEP
22.5
UTEP win probability: 47%
Margin (UTEP − Nevada): -1.3 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 46.3 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14 | 0.86% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:25 PM | -0.1 | 45.4 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | -0.1 | 45.4 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:11 PM | -1.3 | 46.3 | 47% |