Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Mississippi State | 34–17 | 36.5–17.7 | 1.8 |
| Week 3 | vs App State | 22–38 | 31.4–23.2 | 24.1 |
| Week 4 | @ Louisiana Tech | 30–20 | 28.5–19.6 | 1.0 |
| Week 5 | vs Jacksonville State | 25–42 | 31.1–21.0 | 27.1 |
| Week 7 | @ Georgia Southern | 35–38 | 30.4–25.9 | 7.5 |
| Week 8 | @ Louisiana | 10–22 | 27.6–23.2 | 16.3 |
| Week 9 | vs UL Monroe | 21–49 | 22.4–28.4 | 22.1 |
| Week 11 | @ Arkansas State | 21–27 | 28.2–26.9 | 7.4 |
| Week 12 | vs Texas State | 41–14 | 33.0–27.1 | 21.0 |
| Week 13 | @ South Alabama | 42–35 | 29.3–24.2 | 1.8 |
| Week 14 | vs Troy | 28–18 | 25.1–24.0 | 8.9 |
| Week 1 | vs Western Kentucky | 27–16 | 33.1–21.7 | 0.4 |