2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 4:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Mississippi State @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreConfident

Mississippi State

36.5

Southern Miss

17.7

Southern Miss win probability: 12%

Margin (Southern Miss − Mississippi State): -18.8 (80% range -39 to 1)

Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Mississippi State 34 – Southern Miss 17 (margin error 1.8, total error 3.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.