2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 9:00 PM · Cajun Field
Southern Miss @ Louisiana
Predicted scoreLean
Southern Miss
23.2
Louisiana
27.6
Louisiana win probability: 61%
Margin (Louisiana − Southern Miss): 4.3 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Southern Miss 22 – Louisiana 10 (margin error 16.3, total error 18.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.