2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 7:30 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

UL Monroe @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLean

UL Monroe

22.4

Southern Miss

28.4

Southern Miss win probability: 64%

Margin (Southern Miss − UL Monroe): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: UL Monroe 21 – Southern Miss 49 (margin error 22.1, total error 19.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.