2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Jacksonville State @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Jacksonville State

31.1

Southern Miss

21.0

Southern Miss win probability: 26%

Margin (Southern Miss − Jacksonville State): -10.1 (80% range -31 to 10)

Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Jacksonville State 25 – Southern Miss 42 (margin error 27.1, total error 14.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.