2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 11:30 PM · Joe Aillet Stadium

Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech

Predicted scoreLikely

Southern Miss

19.6

Louisiana Tech

28.5

Louisiana Tech win probability: 72%

Margin (Louisiana Tech − Southern Miss): 9.0 (80% range -10 to 28)

Total: 48.1 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Southern Miss 20 – Louisiana Tech 30 (margin error 1.0, total error 1.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.