2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

App State @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLean

App State

31.4

Southern Miss

23.2

Southern Miss win probability: 31%

Margin (Southern Miss − App State): -8.1 (80% range -28 to 12)

Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: App State 22 – Southern Miss 38 (margin error 24.1, total error 5.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.