2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 5:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Southern Miss @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Southern Miss

26.9

Arkansas State

28.2

Arkansas State win probability: 54%

Margin (Arkansas State − Southern Miss): 1.4 (80% range -20 to 21)

Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Southern Miss 27 – Arkansas State 21 (margin error 7.4, total error 7.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.