2025 Postseason · Dec 23, 2025, 10:30 PM · Caesars Superdome (neutral site)

Western Kentucky @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Western Kentucky

33.1

Southern Miss

21.7

Southern Miss win probability: 24%

Margin (Southern Miss − Western Kentucky): -11.4 (80% range -32 to 10)

Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Western Kentucky 27 – Southern Miss 16 (margin error 0.4, total error 11.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.