Buffalo

Mid-American

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs Bowling Green	21.3–27.6	66%
Week 10	@ Miami (OH)	27.8–23.3	39%
Week 11	@ Ball State	24.6–28.8	61%
Week 12	vs Central Michigan	24.7–26.2	54%
Week 13	@ Akron	23.0–28.4	63%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs UAlbany	17–21	—	—
Week 2	@ Florida International	33–20	27.6–21.0	6.4
Week 3	@ Penn State	55–13	41.9–9.2	9.3
Week 4	vs Robert Morris	28–31	—	—
Week 5	vs Western Michigan	20–17	27.8–21.3	3.6
Week 6	@ Toledo	8–23	35.6–18.1	32.5
Week 7	vs Massachusetts	18–25	23.6–28.1	2.4