2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · UB Stadium
Bowling Green @ Buffalo
Predicted scoreLean
Bowling Green
21.3
Buffalo
27.6
Buffalo win probability: 66%
Margin (Buffalo − Bowling Green): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 26)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:43 PM | 1.2 | 48.1 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:55 PM | 1.2 | 48.1 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:53 PM | 1.2 | 48.1 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:00 AM | 1.2 | 48.1 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:17 PM | 1.2 | 48.1 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:35 PM | 0.9 | 47.8 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:58 PM | -0.3 | 46.6 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:34 PM | 3.9 | 48.7 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:12 PM | 4.0 | 48.7 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:23 AM | 4.4 | 48.6 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:02 PM | 4.4 | 48.7 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:54 PM | 4.0 | 46.9 | 60% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:47 PM | 2.3 | 47.7 | 56% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:08 PM | 5.5 | 47.6 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:12 PM | 6.3 | 48.9 | 66% |