Predicted scoreLikely
Buffalo
16.6
Toledo
32.0
Toledo win probability: 84%
Margin (Toledo − Buffalo): 15.4 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:24 PM | 15.4 | 48.6 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | 15.4 | 48.6 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:10 PM | 15.4 | 48.7 | 84% |