Predicted scoreConfident
Buffalo
18.1
Toledo
35.6
Toledo win probability: 86%
Margin (Toledo − Buffalo): 17.5 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Buffalo 23 – Toledo 8 (margin error 32.5, total error 22.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:24 PM | 15.4 | 48.6 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | 15.4 | 48.6 | 84% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:10 PM | 15.4 | 48.7 | 84% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:42 AM | 15.4 | 48.7 | 84% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:28 PM | 15.4 | 48.6 | 84% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:39 PM | 15.3 | 49.2 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:37 PM | 16.2 | 49.3 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:49 PM | 16.2 | 50.0 | 85% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:05 PM | 16.2 | 50.0 | 85% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:31 AM | 16.4 | 50.1 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM | 16.5 | 50.1 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:03 PM | 18.8 | 52.8 | 88% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:06 PM | 17.5 | 53.7 | 86% |