2026 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 AM · Yager Stadium
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreLean
Buffalo
23.3
Miami (OH)
27.8
Miami (OH) win probability: 61%
Margin (Miami (OH) − Buffalo): 4.5 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:16 PM | 9.4 | 49.5 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:11 PM | 9.4 | 49.5 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:42 PM | 9.5 | 49.5 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:38 AM | 9.4 | 49.5 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:40 PM | 9.6 | 49.5 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:58 PM | 9.4 | 49.6 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:57 PM | 5.4 | 52.3 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:27 PM | 5.8 | 53.0 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:00 PM | 5.9 | 53.0 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:27 PM | 6.3 | 53.0 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:03 PM | 6.3 | 53.0 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:50 PM | 9.8 | 52.5 | 73% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:23 PM | 7.6 | 52.6 | 68% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:00 PM | 3.8 | 52.7 | 59% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:42 PM | 4.5 | 51.2 | 61% |