Predicted scoreLean
Buffalo
28.4
Akron
23.0
Akron win probability: 37%
Margin (Akron − Buffalo): -5.4 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:58 PM | -2.0 | 48.8 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:00 PM | -2.0 | 48.8 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:06 PM | -2.0 | 48.8 | 45% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:27 AM | -2.0 | 48.9 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:54 PM | -2.0 | 48.8 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:55 PM | -1.6 | 48.4 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:34 PM | -0.6 | 49.6 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:11 PM | -1.0 | 51.1 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:43:18 PM | -0.9 | 51.1 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:25 PM | -0.4 | 51.5 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:42 PM | -0.4 | 51.2 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:39 PM | 0.1 | 50.4 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:58 PM | -0.7 | 53.1 | 48% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:02 PM | -4.6 | 51.8 | 39% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:10 PM | -5.4 | 51.3 | 37% |