2026 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2026, 5:00 AM · UB Stadium
Central Michigan @ Buffalo
Predicted scoreToss-up
Central Michigan
24.7
Buffalo
26.2
Buffalo win probability: 54%
Margin (Buffalo − Central Michigan): 1.4 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:43 PM | 0.2 | 49.4 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:43 PM | 0.2 | 49.5 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:15 PM | 1.5 | 50.5 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:30 AM | 1.5 | 50.5 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:32 PM | 1.5 | 50.5 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:44 PM | 1.1 | 49.8 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:46 PM | 1.9 | 51.0 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:45 PM | 0.8 | 51.6 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:19 PM | 0.8 | 51.6 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:27 PM | 1.2 | 51.6 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:49 PM | 1.2 | 51.6 | 53% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:24 PM | -3.0 | 51.8 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:11 PM | -3.9 | 53.2 | 40% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:08 PM | -0.0 | 51.9 | 50% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:48 PM | 1.4 | 50.9 | 54% |