2026 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Buffalo @ Ball State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Buffalo
25.2
Ball State
22.5
Ball State win probability: 43%
Margin (Ball State − Buffalo): -2.8 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 47.7 (80% range 26 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:26 PM | -2.8 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:27 PM | -2.7 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:28 PM | -2.8 | 47.7 | 43% |