2026 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Buffalo @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLean
Buffalo
28.8
Ball State
24.6
Ball State win probability: 39%
Margin (Ball State − Buffalo): -4.2 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:26 PM | -2.8 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:27 PM | -2.7 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:28 PM | -2.8 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:21 AM | -2.8 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:14 PM | -2.8 | 47.7 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:06 PM | -2.9 | 48.0 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:38 PM | -2.8 | 48.9 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:01 PM | -1.9 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:33 PM | -1.9 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:08 PM | -1.5 | 50.8 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:19 PM | -1.5 | 50.8 | 46% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:22 PM | -4.6 | 51.2 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:47 PM | -3.8 | 52.1 | 40% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:56 PM | -5.2 | 52.5 | 37% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:03 PM | -4.2 | 53.3 | 39% |