2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · UB Stadium
Massachusetts @ Buffalo
Predicted scoreLean
Massachusetts
23.6
Buffalo
28.1
Buffalo win probability: 61%
Margin (Buffalo − Massachusetts): 4.6 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Massachusetts 18 – Buffalo 25 (margin error 2.4, total error 8.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:28 PM | 13.9 | 51.9 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:39 PM | 13.9 | 51.9 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:11 PM | 13.9 | 51.9 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:27 AM | 13.9 | 51.9 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:54 PM | 13.9 | 51.9 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:29 PM | 14.7 | 51.7 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:12 PM | 5.4 | 49.5 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:51 PM | 3.7 | 52.0 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:34 PM | 3.7 | 52.0 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:17 AM | 4.1 | 52.0 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:21 PM | 4.2 | 51.9 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:38 PM | -1.6 | 52.4 | 46% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:30 PM | 0.5 | 52.9 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:44 PM | 4.6 | 51.7 | 61% |