2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · UB Stadium
Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Michigan
25.8
Buffalo
22.1
Buffalo win probability: 41%
Margin (Buffalo − Western Michigan): -3.7 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 47.9 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:39 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |