2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · UB Stadium
Western Michigan @ Buffalo
Predicted scoreLean
Western Michigan
27.8
Buffalo
21.3
Buffalo win probability: 34%
Margin (Buffalo − Western Michigan): -6.6 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 49.1 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Western Michigan 20 – Buffalo 17 (margin error 3.6, total error 12.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:05 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:39 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:47 AM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:58 PM | -3.7 | 47.9 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:55 PM | -3.6 | 47.5 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:36 PM | -4.8 | 46.5 | 38% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:12 PM | -6.4 | 48.4 | 34% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:36 PM | -7.2 | 48.2 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:53 AM | -6.9 | 48.3 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:38 PM | -6.9 | 48.3 | 33% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:24 PM | -6.6 | 49.1 | 34% |