Ball State
Mid-American
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Purdue | 31–0 | 32.2–25.1 | 23.9 |
| Week 2 | @ Auburn | 42–3 | 41.2–14.2 | 12.0 |
| Week 4 | @ UConn | 31–25 | 33.7–21.6 | 6.1 |
| Week 6 | vs Ohio | 14–20 | 34.6–18.8 | 21.8 |
| Week 7 | @ Western Michigan | 42–0 | 27.5–22.3 | 36.8 |
| Week 8 | vs Akron | 28–42 | 24.9–29.1 | 9.9 |
| Week 9 | @ Northern Illinois | 21–7 | 28.7–22.0 | 7.3 |
| Week 11 | vs Kent State | 13–17 | 23.9–29.0 | 1.2 |
| Week 12 | vs Eastern Michigan | 24–9 | 30.3–25.8 | 10.5 |
| Week 13 | @ Toledo | 38–9 | 34.0–14.8 | 9.8 |
| Week 14 | @ Miami (OH) | 45–24 | 30.7–17.6 | 7.9 |