2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 7:30 PM · Huskie Stadium
Ball State @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
22.0
Northern Illinois
28.7
Northern Illinois win probability: 67%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Ball State): 6.7 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Ball State 7 – Northern Illinois 21 (margin error 7.3, total error 22.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.