2025 Week 11 · Nov 6, 2025, 12:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Kent State @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLean
Kent State
23.9
Ball State
29.0
Ball State win probability: 63%
Margin (Ball State − Kent State): 5.2 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Kent State 13 – Ball State 17 (margin error 1.2, total error 22.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.