2025 Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025, 4:00 PM · Ross-Ade Stadium
Ball State @ Purdue
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
25.1
Purdue
32.2
Purdue win probability: 67%
Margin (Purdue − Ball State): 7.1 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 57.2 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Ball State 0 – Purdue 31 (margin error 23.9, total error 26.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.