2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 4:00 PM · Scheumann Stadium
Ohio @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLikely
Ohio
34.6
Ball State
18.8
Ball State win probability: 16%
Margin (Ball State − Ohio): -15.8 (80% range -36 to 4)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Ohio 14 – Ball State 20 (margin error 21.8, total error 19.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | 14 | 0.75% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 35 | 10 | 0.68% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.