2025 Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM · Scheumann Stadium
Akron @ Ball State
Predicted scoreLean
Akron
24.9
Ball State
29.1
Ball State win probability: 60%
Margin (Ball State − Akron): 4.1 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Akron 28 – Ball State 42 (margin error 9.9, total error 16.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.