2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Ball State @ UConn

Predicted scoreLikely

Ball State

21.6

UConn

33.7

UConn win probability: 78%

Margin (UConn − Ball State): 12.1 (80% range -8 to 32)

Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Ball State 25 – UConn 31 (margin error 6.1, total error 0.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.