Ball State
Mid-American
2023 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2023
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Kentucky | 44–14 | 33.9–14.0 | 10.1 |
| Week 2 | @ Georgia | 45–3 | 48.6–5.7 | 0.9 |
| Week 4 | vs Georgia Southern | 40–3 | 28.3–26.5 | 35.2 |
| Week 5 | @ Western Michigan | 42–24 | 27.1–24.5 | 15.4 |
| Week 6 | @ Eastern Michigan | 24–10 | 23.0–23.2 | 14.3 |
| Week 7 | vs Toledo | 13–6 | 33.2–21.2 | 5.0 |
| Week 8 | vs Central Michigan | 17–24 | 29.4–23.8 | 12.6 |
| Week 10 | @ Bowling Green | 24–21 | 27.9–19.4 | 5.5 |
| Week 11 | @ Northern Illinois | 17–20 | 31.8–23.5 | 11.3 |
| Week 12 | vs Kent State | 3–34 | 23.7–31.5 | 23.2 |
| Week 13 | vs Miami (OH) | 17–15 | 27.7–19.0 | 6.8 |