2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 4:00 PM · Kroger Field
Ball State @ Kentucky
Predicted scoreConfident
Ball State
14.0
Kentucky
33.9
Kentucky win probability: 91%
Margin (Kentucky − Ball State): 19.9 (80% range 0 to 39)
Total: 47.9 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: Ball State 14 – Kentucky 44 (margin error 10.1, total error 10.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.98% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.81% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.