2023 Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM · Waldo Stadium
Ball State @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ball State
24.5
Western Michigan
27.1
Western Michigan win probability: 56%
Margin (Western Michigan − Ball State): 2.6 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Ball State 24 – Western Michigan 42 (margin error 15.4, total error 14.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2026, 9:41:07 PM | 2.6 | 51.5 | 56% |
| 8/13/2026, 3:13:35 PM | 2.6 | 51.5 | 56% |