2023 Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023, 7:30 PM · Scheumann Stadium

Central Michigan @ Ball State

Predicted scoreLean

Central Michigan

29.4

Ball State

23.8

Ball State win probability: 36%

Margin (Ball State − Central Michigan): -5.6 (80% range -25 to 14)

Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 79)

Actual: Central Michigan 17 – Ball State 24 (margin error 12.6, total error 12.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.