2023 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2023, 12:00 AM · Huskie Stadium
Ball State @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
23.5
Northern Illinois
31.8
Northern Illinois win probability: 69%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Ball State): 8.3 (80% range -13 to 29)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Ball State 20 – Northern Illinois 17 (margin error 11.3, total error 18.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.